I’ve always associated the term “forecast” with the weather. Coming from the Midwest, I am culturally inclined to a near obsession with the weather. Few places have unchangeable weather, and living someplace where a tornado, a blizzard, a scorching heat wave or some other short or long term event can come slamming down on top of you makes you a bit skeptical of anyone’s ability to tell the future.  Granted, in the area of meteorology, science is improving, but sometimes it pays to just step outside for minute and look at the sky.

Business forecasts are even trickier. Aside from the historical data and numerous theories about how things are supposed to work, I’ve looked with jaundiced eye upon any report laying out the next quarter, year or election cycle with any real certainty. There are too many variables, most of which are unknown, and the complexity of the interplay of uncontrollables is mind-numbing.

I recently read an article in the Economist that spoke to the difficulty of forecasting the Internet’s impact on business.  The writer cites a few examples of how the Internet was supposed to change everything:

• E-commerce would put retail completely out of business….and yet Amazon is set to open a storefront in Manhattan.
• The freedom of thought and exchange of ideas would change the world into a more liberal and democratic place….and yet the most populous nation on the planet also has one of the most comprehensive Internet censorship machines imaginable.
• Location would become irrelevant – the world would become “flat”…and yet both Amazon  and Google  are in sharp competition to get any goods ordered from them through that last mile to the customer, wherever they are, as quickly as possible.